Possible scenario
Street Tensions Escalate
20% Chance
Anti-migrant groups and counter-protesters mobilise around the case, especially after the three migrant deaths the previous day. The base case is limited disorder, but recent U.K. anti-migrant violence makes a broader flare-up plausible.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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