Possible scenario
Western Support Expands
25% Chance
The attacks trigger a faster diplomatic and security response from Ukraine's partners, focused on air defense, maritime surveillance and insurance backstops. Russia keeps threatening shipping, but the additional support reduces the probability of a full corridor shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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