Possible scenario
Corridor Stays Open
45% Chance
Ukraine continues Black Sea exports despite higher insurance costs and intermittent Russian attacks. This is the base case because the corridor has survived prior Russian pressure since Ukrainian naval successes reopened it in 2024.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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