Sullivan Narrow Reelection

Dan Sullivan remains the slight favorite because incumbency, Alaska’s Republican lean, and Peltola’s recent slur allegations give him a small but durable edge. The 1.3-point poll lead keeps the race competitive, but Sullivan is more likely than not to survive if the national environment is neutral-to-Republican.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.