Possible scenario
Policy Coordination Deepens
20% Chance
The FX operation becomes the start of more explicit U.S.-Japan coordination rather than a one-off trade. Markets begin pricing a stronger chance that the Bank of Japan will tighten again or that the U.S. Treasury will keep authorizing operations if dollar-yen rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Finance -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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