Possible scenario
Intervention Quickly Fades
25% Chance
Markets conclude the New York Fed operation was limited in size and not backed by a decisive change in interest-rate differentials. Yen weakness resumes as traders focus on the gap between U.S. and Japanese yields.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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