Possible scenario
Republicans Hold House
20% Chance
Republicans narrowly retain House control despite Democratic optimism, ending any realistic path to impeachment. Democratic probes continue through minority oversight requests and outside litigation, but subpoena power remains with the GOP.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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