Possible scenario
Formal Inquiry Advances
30% Chance
A Democratic House majority interprets the election as a mandate for accountability and moves toward a formal impeachment inquiry. The likely focus is alleged obstruction tied to the ended Collins bribery probe and broader abuse-of-power claims.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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