Conflict Contained

The most likely outcome is that Kollitides’s exit from Alvarez & Marsal is treated as a conflict-management step rather than evidence of misconduct. The Pentagon, Hegseth’s office, and ethics officials preserve his missile-procurement role while tightening recusals around A&M-linked work.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.