Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
25% Chance
The mobilization call becomes part of a wider Saudi-led military response after further Houthi launches toward Saudi territory. Markets price a higher probability of attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and a more durable disruption to Red Sea trade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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