Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause
20% Chance
Oman and the United Nations move quickly to prevent the Riyadh strike from unraveling the post-2022 de-escalation framework. The PLC keeps mobilization rhetoric in place, but Saudi Arabia uses aid, funding, and military coordination to slow a broader offensive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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