Possible scenario
Energy Pivot Gains
34% Chance
Talarico's support for oil and gas is treated as a pragmatic general-election pivot after winning the Democratic primary. The move helps him reduce Paxton's advantage with energy workers, building-trades unions, and moderate suburban voters without fully abandoning climate language.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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