Possible scenario
Fuel Stress Persists
20% Chance
The meeting fails to quickly lower prices because physical diesel supply remains tight across Europe. French shortages, high import costs, and limited refining flexibility keep Italian pump prices near records despite political pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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