Possible scenario
Limited Escalation
30% Chance
The Houthis test the new Saudi-Egyptian posture with another limited missile or drone operation. Saudi Arabia and Egypt respond defensively or with narrow strikes, but both sides avoid actions that would clearly endanger oil production or trigger full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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