Possible scenario
Energy Risk Escalates
20% Chance
The Saudi-Egyptian deployment fails to deter the Houthis and the conflict begins to threaten energy infrastructure, Red Sea logistics, or Saudi export confidence. This remains below a formal regional war, but markets price a materially higher probability of oil-supply disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.