Possible scenario
Limited Local Impact
55% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the quake is treated as a moderate aftershock-type event in a seismically active region, with little structural damage. AFAD, provincial governors and local municipalities conduct inspections, but national economic or market effects remain negligible.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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