Possible scenario
Political Backlash Managed
24% Chance
Public opposition to visible Israeli participation rises because the Israel-Hamas war remains politically salient across the region. Rabat is likely to contain criticism without reversing normalization, balancing security needs against domestic sensitivities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- ESLT-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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