Possible scenario
Phased Disarmament Deal
35% Chance
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam uses Rubio's conditionality to press the Lebanese cabinet and army into a phased plan covering Hezbollah positions south of the Litani River first. Washington keeps support flowing but ties disbursements to verifiable Lebanese Armed Forces deployments and weapons handovers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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