Possible scenario
Aid-for-Arms Stalemate
30% Chance
Hezbollah and allied ministers block enforceable disarmament steps, while Salam avoids a cabinet rupture by delaying final decisions. The U.S. pauses new assistance tranches but keeps diplomatic channels open to prevent institutional collapse in Beirut.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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