Possible scenario
Saudi Retaliatory Strikes
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with targeted airstrikes on Houthi launch sites, radar facilities, or missile storage depots in Yemen. The exchange raises near-term risk premiums but remains below the threshold of a wider regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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