Possible scenario
Oman Mediation Resumes
20% Chance
Despite the missile attempt, Oman and the UN push both sides back toward deconfliction talks. Riyadh may use successful interception as a reason to avoid escalation while seeking guarantees against attacks on its capital.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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