Sanctions Compliance Widens

The most likely path is continued alignment by U.S. partners and aviation regulators, leaving Iranian carriers cut off from most Western-linked airspace, airports and service providers. This outcome reflects the immediate compliance incentives for countries, insurers, ground handlers and aircraft lessors after the U.S. shutdown order.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.