Possible scenario
Limited Waivers Negotiated
18% Chance
Diplomatic intermediaries may push for exemptions covering medical evacuations, repatriation, UN travel and religious pilgrimages. This would preserve the sanctions regime while reducing humanitarian and consular disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.