Possible scenario
Iran Builds Workarounds
25% Chance
Iran is likely to attempt partial circumvention through neighboring states, third-country travel agencies, wet-leased aircraft and non-Iranian flight numbers. Such workarounds would reduce the practical effect of the ban but increase enforcement risk for brokers, airports and service providers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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