Possible scenario
Regional Spillover
20% Chance
The collapse of the Pretoria arrangement revives the unresolved role of Eritrean forces and Amhara militias in northern Ethiopia. This scenario carries the highest market relevance because it raises Red Sea and Horn of Africa security risks, though the direct global economic transmission remains modest.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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