Possible scenario
Federal Counteroffensive
30% Chance
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government decides that allowing the TPLF to hold airports would create an unacceptable military and political precedent. The Ethiopian National Defense Force attempts to retake key airfields, producing renewed conventional fighting in Tigray.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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