Possible scenario
AU Ceasefire Push
35% Chance
The African Union, Kenya, South Africa, and the United States move quickly to prevent the airport seizures from becoming a full return to the 2020-2022 war. Addis Ababa and the TPLF both face strong incentives to avoid a prolonged conflict, including military fatigue, humanitarian risk, and Ethiopia's need to preserve IMF and creditor support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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