Direct Tehran Escalation

The threat to annihilate Tehran becomes operational pressure rather than rhetoric, producing a major escalation risk. This outcome remains less likely than contained conflict because it would endanger U.S. forces across the region and risk a wider war, but the March troop deaths and failed enrichment diplomacy make it plausible.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.