Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
35% Chance
The most likely de-escalatory path is a tactical pause rather than a comprehensive nuclear deal. Both Washington and Tehran have incentives to test a UN-channel off-ramp after months of fighting, while avoiding the political cost of appearing to concede.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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