Possible scenario
Contained Military Pressure
30% Chance
Talks fail to produce a breakthrough, but both sides avoid direct attacks on national leadership or dense civilian centers. The conflict continues through calibrated U.S. strikes, Iranian drone and missile harassment, and proxy activity in Iraq, Syria, and the Red Sea.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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