Possible scenario
Narrow Export Controls
25% Chance
The administration avoids a blanket ban but introduces a limited licensing, reporting, or allocation mechanism for diesel exports. This gives the White House a visible anti-price action while limiting damage to UK and European supply security.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- VLO-2.6%
- PSX-2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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