Possible scenario
Export Ban Imposed
20% Chance
Political pressure from Republicans and Donald Trump pushes the administration toward a more aggressive intervention despite UK objections. A temporary export ban or near-ban would be disruptive for refiners and Atlantic Basin fuel markets, but still likely presented as a short-term emergency step.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Industrials +0.7%
Tickers
- PBF-5.1%
- VLO-4.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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