Possible scenario
Backchannel Talks Resume
30% Chance
The journalist's denial proves too narrow: no formal US-Iran meeting occurred, but indirect contacts through Oman, Qatar, or European intermediaries continue. Markets unwind part of the oil risk premium if officials signal a path toward reopening the strait.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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