Possible scenario
Reopening Deal Reached
35% Chance
Iran and the United States use the four-to-five-day window to settle on a face-saving interim arrangement. Tehran reopens most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a limited U.S. blockade suspension, escrow access, and renewed talks under Omani or Qatari mediation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +3.2%
- Energy -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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