Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
25% Chance
The deadline expires without a deal, prompting a limited U.S.-led effort to force passage and deter Iranian seizures. Both sides attempt to keep attacks confined to military assets, escorts, drones, mines, and IRGC coastal positions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.