Possible scenario
Deadline Stalemate Persists
30% Chance
Neither side accepts the other’s terms, but both avoid immediate escalation. Iran maintains pressure through selective cargo seizures and inspection delays while the U.S. keeps the blockade and naval posture in place.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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