Possible scenario
Limited Missile Exchange
30% Chance
Iran or Iranian-aligned forces launch a limited missile-and-drone salvo aimed at Israel, triggering Israeli air defenses but stopping short of a region-wide war. The most likely market response is a sharper oil risk premium, higher volatility, and pressure on airlines and consumer-sensitive sectors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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