Possible scenario
Gulf Supply Disruption
23% Chance
The confrontation shifts from Israeli airspace to the Gulf, where tankers or energy infrastructure become targets again. Because prior Hormuz tanker attacks and the Aramco strike already lifted Brent, another supply-linked incident would produce the largest near-term oil reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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