Possible scenario
Unrest And Crackdown
20% Chance
Worsening blackouts, food shortages, and collapsing public services produce another wave of protests similar to July 2021 but potentially broader. The regime’s first response is likely repression by the Interior Ministry, police, and pro-government rapid-response brigades.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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