Pressure Without Break

The most likely path is a continued U.S. escalation campaign that raises costs for Miguel Díaz-Canel’s government without producing near-term regime change. Washington uses sanctions, DOJ actions, travel restrictions, and public diplomacy while Havana relies on repression, rationing, and limited allies to remain in power.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.