Possible scenario
Managed Regime Adjustment
28% Chance
The Cuban Communist Party tries to relieve pressure through controlled policy changes rather than political liberalization. Leadership reshuffles, foreign investment concessions, and selective market reforms are used to buy time while the security apparatus remains intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.