Possible scenario
Sustained Kyiv Interdiction
38% Chance
Russia continues using ballistic missiles to degrade Kyiv's rail and bridge network after earlier strikes on power and transit nodes. Ukraine can reroute some traffic, but the South Railway Bridge damage creates a persistent logistics and civilian-mobility bottleneck.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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