Possible scenario
Controlled Retaliation Cycle
22% Chance
Ukraine responds to repeated strikes on Kyiv infrastructure with drone and missile attacks on Russian launch, radar, and logistics sites. Escalation remains likely to stay below direct NATO involvement, but the risk of broader Russian retaliation rises.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- LMT+1.3%
- RTX+1.2%
- AVAV+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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