Possible scenario
Managed Rhetorical De-escalation
45% Chance
EU leaders persuade Volodymyr Zelensky to stop public attacks on Donald Trump while preserving Ukraine’s core objections in private channels. This is the most likely path because Brussels wants to prevent a total rupture with Washington while avoiding the appearance of abandoning Kyiv.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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