Possible scenario
Brussels Talks Break Down
20% Chance
Zelensky refuses to soften his language, calculating that public pressure is the only way to prevent U.S. concessions to Moscow. This would deepen the Kyiv-Washington rupture and force EU leaders to choose between solidarity with Ukraine and preserving access to Trump.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.