Possible scenario
Rotation Beyond Megacaps
20% Chance
The selloff triggers a rotation rather than a broad risk-off event. Portfolio managers reduce exposure to crowded AI winners and add to sectors with less demanding valuations or clearer near-term earnings visibility.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance +0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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