Possible scenario
October Hold, December Live
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the FOMC takes no immediate action and treats the late-2026 decision as data-dependent. Bowman’s comment aligns with Williams and the September minutes: no October urgency, but no full dovish pivot either.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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