Possible scenario
Disinflation Extends Pause
20% Chance
Soft inflation data could validate Bowman’s message and push the Fed toward a longer pause. This outcome builds on the recent core PCE undershoot and would reduce the probability of a December hike.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.