Possible scenario
Election Complaint Filed
25% Chance
Cooke may escalate the matter to Wisconsin election officials or a local court to test whether the image violates state rules on deceptive campaign media. This would keep AI deepfakes in the 2026 midterm narrative but still be too narrow to move broad markets.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.