Possible scenario
Inflation Reaccelerates
20% Chance
Tariffs, services prices, or energy costs keep inflation visibly above the Fed's target. Musalem's warning becomes the lead interpretation of policy risk, causing a sharper but still non-crisis repricing across rates and equities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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